Poonch / Muzaffarabad — A tenuous ceasefire now holds across Kashmir’s volatile Line of Control (LoC), bringing a fragile calm after nearly three weeks of relentless shelling that has killed at least 57 civilians and injured over 100. The violence, which began in the wake of the April 22 militant attack in Pahalgam, marks the deadliest cross-border confrontation since the 2019 Balakot airstrikes.
Despite the May 10 ceasefire agreement, fear and displacement still grip thousands on both sides of the heavily militarized frontier, with schools shuttered, medical services overwhelmed, and homes reduced to rubble.
Civilian Casualties: A Mounting Toll of Innocence
In Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, government sources confirm that 21 civilians lost their lives between April 23 and May 10. The worst-hit areas—Poonch and Rajouri districts—saw multiple residential clusters flattened by sustained Pakistani artillery shelling. Among the dead were 13-year-old twins Zain Ali and Urwa Fatima, whose bodies were found embracing in the basement of their family home, where they had taken shelter during the barrage.
“The house was supposed to protect them,” said their father, Salim Ali, standing amid the smoldering ruins of what used to be a two-story brick dwelling. “Instead, it became their grave.”
Hospitals in Jammu and Srinagar have reported treating over 60 injured civilians, many with blast injuries and shrapnel wounds. Mobile field clinics have been dispatched to remote villages cut off by damaged roads and communications infrastructure.
Across the LoC, in Pakistan-administered Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), officials from the State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) confirm at least 36 deaths. Kotli, Haveli, and Muzaffarabad sectors have been the primary targets of Indian retaliatory fire.
On May 7, Indian shells struck a madrasa and adjoining residential compound in the Chirikot sector, killing eight, including a schoolteacher and three children. “We pulled three children from the rubble alive after 14 hours,” said rescue worker Tariq Butt. “But two others didn’t make it. Their mother kept calling their names as we worked.”
The Forgotten Victims of War
Indian-Administered Kashmir: Death and Desperation
| Category | Number | Key Incidents |
|---|---|---|
| Civilian Deaths | 21 | Zain Ali & Urwa Fatima (13-year-old twins) killed in Poonch shelling. |
| Injured | 59 | Ruby Kaur, a housewife, died while making tea for her husband. |
| Displaced | 30,200+ | Entire villages near Uri and Akhnoor evacuated under fire. |
Eyewitness Account:
“We ran for hours in the dark. My uncle was hit by shrapnel—he still doesn’t know his children are dead.”
— Sarfaraz Ahmad Mir, Poonch resident
Pakistan-Administered Kashmir: A Humanitarian Crisis
| Category | Number | Key Incidents |
|---|---|---|
| Civilian Deaths | 36 | 8 killed in Muzaffarabad after Indian strikes hit a mosque. |
| Injured | 58 | Children trapped under rubble in Kotli for hours. |
| Blackouts | Widespread | Hospitals overwhelmed, food shortages reported. |
Eyewitness Account:
“The missiles came at night. We hid in bunkers for days—no water, no electricity.”
— Mohammed Waheed, Muzaffarabad resident
From Pahalgam to Ceasefire: A Timeline of Escalation
The current crisis erupted after unidentified gunmen ambushed a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims in the tourist town of Pahalgam on April 22, killing 26 people and injuring dozens more. India swiftly blamed the Pakistan-based militant outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), claiming intelligence intercepts and recovered weapons pointed to cross-border involvement.
Within 48 hours, New Delhi launched Operation Sindoor—a series of targeted airstrikes and commando raids across the LoC aimed at what officials called “terror infrastructure.”
Pakistan responded with Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos, deploying long-range artillery, attack drones, and precision-guided munitions on suspected Indian military positions. However, the brunt of the destruction was borne not by soldiers, but civilians caught in the crossfire.
Satellite imagery released by the UN Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) shows extensive fire damage to civilian settlements in both sectors, with at least 1,200 homes either destroyed or severely damaged. Displacement figures remain fluid, but both administrations estimate over 20,000 people have fled their homes since April.
“For 18 days, it was hell on earth,” said Aslam Khan, a schoolteacher from Battal, AJK. “No electricity, no water, just the constant booms. My kids have stopped speaking. They just cover their ears and cry.”
The Ceasefire: What Changed, and What Hasn’t
The U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal, mediated through backchannel diplomacy involving Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, came into effect on the night of May 10. Both sides agreed to halt offensive operations and allow humanitarian access to affected areas.
What makes this truce different from earlier ones is a mix of tactical innovation and strategic signaling:
Drone Warfare Escalation – For the first time, both sides employed surveillance and attack drones in offensive operations, marking a technological shift in LoC engagements.
Indus Waters Treaty Suspension – In an unprecedented move, India briefly suspended its cooperation under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, a foundational water-sharing accord. Though symbolic, it sent a chilling signal about the depths to which diplomacy had plummeted.
Direct U.S. Involvement – Unlike past flare-ups, which were often de-escalated bilaterally or through quiet Chinese diplomacy, this time Washington stepped in directly—evidence of growing international concern over regional stability.
Yet, many Kashmiris are wary of premature optimism.
“We’ve seen ceasefires before,” says Aisha Bashir, a political science student in Srinagar. “They talk peace when the bombs stop falling, but the occupation, the surveillance, the fear—those don’t go away.”
The Long Shadow of Displacement and Loss
For many, the ceasefire comes too late. In the bombed-out bazaar of Poonch, shopkeeper Riyaz Ahmed stands knee-deep in broken glass and crushed cardboard boxes. What used to be his pharmacy is now a crater ringed by blistered walls.
“Thirty years of work gone in one night,” he mutters, salvaging medicine packets scattered like confetti. “And they expect us to go back to business like nothing happened?”
In Nakyal sector, 62-year-old farmer Ghulam Qadir surveys the remains of his olive grove, the trees singed and leafless, his wife buried beneath a collapsed wall. “They tell us this is about nationalism,” he says, hammering a nail into a tarp shelter. “But what nation destroys its own people?”
With temperatures rising and monsoon season approaching, aid groups are warning of an impending humanitarian crisis. The International Red Cross and several local NGOs have requested urgent funding to supply clean water, temporary shelter, and trauma counseling.
Outlook: Calm or Countdown?
Military analysts remain divided over whether the ceasefire will hold. Some point to the unusually high toll and diplomatic consequences as deterrents to further escalation. Others caution that without addressing the underlying political dispute, any lull in violence will be temporary.
Meanwhile, along the LoC, soldiers remain in combat positions, militant groups issue defiant communiqués, and displaced families live in limbo—hopeful, but not convinced.
“They say the guns are silent now,” says Shazia Maqbool, a mother of four in a Muzaffarabad relief camp. “But in our hearts, we’re still at war.”
