Kashmir Weather Forecast: 30-Day Outlook as Chillai Kalan Nears Its End

Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir — Kashmir continues to endure the harshest phase of winter, Chillai Kalan, as meteorological agencies project prolonged cold conditions, intermittent snowfall, and a slow shift toward seasonal moderation over the next 30 days. The outlook spans late January through February 2026, a crucial period for the Valley’s winter pattern.

Chillai Kalan: Kashmir’s Coldest Phase

The 40-day Chillai Kalan period, which began on December 21, 2025, will conclude on January 31, marking the most severe stretch of winter in Kashmir. This phase is traditionally associated with intense cold, frozen water bodies, and heavy snowfall, particularly in higher elevations.

Meteorologists note that snowfall during this period plays a critical role in replenishing water resources that sustain agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water supply during warmer months.

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30-Day Weather Outlook (Late January – February 2026)

End of Chillai Kalan: January 31 – February 10

Temperatures across the Kashmir Valley are expected to remain below freezing during nights, with Srinagar recording lows between -6°C and -2°C, while daytime temperatures may range from 5°C to 8°C.

Higher-altitude regions such as Gulmarg, Pahalgam, and Sonmarg will experience harsher conditions, with minimum temperatures dropping as low as -13°C.

Snowfall Outlook

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• Light to moderate snowfall possible in higher reaches between February 1–3
• Mostly dry conditions expected February 4–7
• A western disturbance may bring scattered precipitation around February 8–10
• Plains of Srinagar could see light snowfall during this period

Partial ice cover is likely to persist on Dal Lake, with full freezing possible during extended cold nights.

Chillai Khurd: February 11 – February 20

As the Valley enters Chillai Khurd — the 20-day “small cold” phase — temperatures are forecast to rise gradually, though winter conditions will continue.

• Srinagar: Night temperatures between -4°C and -1°C
• Daytime highs: 6°C to 11°C
• Higher reaches: Continued sub-zero conditions

February typically brings 4–8 days of rain or snowfall across Jammu and Kashmir, with cumulative precipitation estimated around 90mm, driven by western disturbances.

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Chillai Bachha: February 21 – Early March

The final winter phase, Chillai Bachha, signals a slow transition toward spring.

• Night temperatures: -2°C to 2°C
• Daytime temperatures: 8°C to 12°C
• Reduced snowfall frequency, though light precipitation remains possible
• Increased sunshine hours across the Valley

Regional Weather Snapshot

Kashmir Division

• Srinagar: Average February temperature around 1°C
• Gulmarg: Sustained snow cover, favorable winter conditions
• Pahalgam & Sonmarg: Periodic snowfall, colder nights
• Kupwara & Baramulla: Higher probability of snow accumulation

Jammu Division

• Jammu City: Mild winter with temperatures ranging 11°C–23°C
• Katra: Cool mornings and evenings, relatively stable weather
• Upper districts: Occasional snowfall in higher elevations

Ladakh

• Leh & Kargil: Extreme cold persists, -15°C to -5°C
• Mountain passes remain under severe winter conditions

February in Context

Long-range forecasts for February 2026 align closely with historical winter trends in the region. Average temperatures and expected precipitation remain within the seasonal norm, reinforcing Kashmir’s traditional winter cycle from Chillai Kalan to Chillai Bachha.

Winter’s Final Stretch

While harsh cold continues to dominate the Valley, February marks the final phase of winter 2025–26. By early March, gradual warming is expected, setting the stage for early spring signs across the region.