Political uncertainty continues to grip Pakistan-administered Kashmir as opposition parties move forward with a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Chaudhry Anwar-ul-Haq. The motion comes barely weeks after widespread street protests shook the region, leaving behind a tense and fragile political atmosphere that has now spilled into the assembly.
The current crisis marks yet another episode in a series of leadership changes since the 2021 elections, which saw two prime ministers removed before Anwar-ul-Haq took office.
The 2021 Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) elections brought the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to power with 26 seats, supported by nine independent members. However, internal divisions soon fractured the party, leading to multiple forward blocs. PTI’s first prime minister, Abdul Qayyum Niazi, was ousted through a no-confidence motion, followed by Tanveer Ilyas’s disqualification under a court order.
Anwar-ul-Haq, who emerged from a PTI forward bloc, later assumed the role of prime minister. But following deep internal rifts and the fragmentation of PTI, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has now become the largest party in the AJK assembly. PPP has officially endorsed the no-confidence motion against Anwar-ul-Haq, joined by PTI defectors—including former Prime Minister Tanveer Ilyas.
Party Strength in the AJK Assembly
To form a government in AJK, a party or coalition must secure at least 27 of the assembly’s 53 seats.
According to the latest numbers:
PPP holds 17 seats
PML-N has 9
PTI retains 4
PTI (Barrister Sultan group) holds 7
PTI (Anwar-ul-Haq group) has 8
The Refugees Group has 4
Muslim Conference, JKPP, and Ulema-e-Mashaikh each hold 1 seat
With growing defections and shifting alliances, the PPP now appears to have the numbers needed to remove the prime minister.
From Street Protests to Parliamentary Crisis
The latest political challenge emerged soon after mass protests swept through the region last month. These demonstrations—led by the Jammu Kashmir Joint Action Committee (JKJAAC)—forced the government to accept several of the protesters’ demands after violent clashes resulted in deaths and injuries.
Both the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) have blamed Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq for mishandling the crisis. Following negotiations between the Pakistani government’s special committee and Kashmiri representatives, PPP leaders said the agreement reached with the JKJAAC would be honored.
PPP leader and former Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf stated after a meeting with President Asif Ali Zardari that “the agreed terms will be implemented, and all legitimate demands have been accepted.” Committee member Qamar Zaman Kaira echoed the sentiment, saying, “The current government has become a source of crisis rather than a solution. We need political stability and fair elections.”
Opposition’s Position and Pakistani Involvement
The Pakistani government in Islamabad has taken a keen interest in resolving the political impasse. PML-N’s Rana Sanaullah, also part of the committee, said, “This government has failed to fulfill its responsibilities. A new setup is necessary to ensure good governance for the people of Kashmir.”
Political observers, however, warn that any new government will face immense challenges—particularly implementing the JKJAAC’s agreement, revising voter lists, and ensuring transparent elections.
Defections and Shifting Alliances
Following the protests, the PPP formally withdrew from the ruling coalition, citing a breakdown in trust between the government, political parties, and the public. Soon after, the PML-N also joined the opposition benches.
Members representing the “Refugees of Kashmir” group, including Akbar Ibrahim, accused Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq of conspiracy against their interests. “We have withdrawn our support from the government,” he said, adding that his group would support PPP in forming a new administration.
With several refugee ministers resigning after the protests, the government lost its parliamentary majority. PPP’s Information Secretary Sardar Javed Ayub confirmed that “the prime minister has been given an opportunity to resign; otherwise, the no-confidence motion will be tabled.”
He added that PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will announce the new leader of the house, with potential candidates including Assembly Speaker Chaudhry Latif Akbar, party president Chaudhry Yasin, and Sardar Yaqoob Khan.
Latif Akbar told media, “We already have the support of 28 members. The prime minister said if we reached that number, he would resign—so now he should step down voluntarily.”
Growing Criticism of Governance
Akbar admitted that the government’s delay in responding to protest demands escalated tensions: “The government should have accepted legitimate demands earlier. By ignoring small issues, it allowed a full-scale movement to grow.”
He argued that the administration failed to connect with citizens and lost legitimacy, paving the way for the rise of the JKJAAC: “This was never a political government; it was destined to fail.”
Akbar vowed to restore confidence, promising that a new government would deliver in six months and hold transparent elections.
Voices from the Opposition
Former AJK Prime Minister Raja Farooq Haider of the PML-N believes fresh elections are the only solution. “This assembly’s term ends in July 2026. The best way forward is to seek a new mandate,” he said.
Haider accused the 2021 elections of being engineered: “A party with no genuine representatives was brought into power through manipulation. That party has now changed three prime ministers.”
He acknowledged that traditional political parties have failed to address public concerns, allowing traders and civil activists to fill the void. “We have decided not to be part of any government formation or its downfall—we will remain in opposition,” he said.
A Decline in Public Trust
Former PTI Prime Minister Abdul Qayyum Niazi, who was ousted earlier, admitted that political parties have lost credibility. “People will remember that they were abandoned during difficult times,” he said.
Niazi, however, believes PTI still has grassroots support, especially due to its alignment with the JKJAAC. “Unlike other parties, PTI fully supported the public movement. That will matter in the next election,” he added.
Once commanding 26 seats, PTI now holds only four, with many members joining rival blocs.
Structural Problems in AJK’s Political System
The crisis has also reignited debate about AJK’s governance model. Political analyst Zahid Amin argues that “the parliamentary system itself is unsuitable for Kashmir.”
He told media that “real decision-making doesn’t happen in Muzaffarabad. From Islamabad to Larkana and Jati Umra, external influence dictates politics here.”
According to Amin, “People have lost faith in state parties, effectively surrendering the right of self-governance. When decisions come from elsewhere, local leaders inevitably clash to please their patrons.”
He warned that if the JKJAAC boycotts upcoming elections, “polling stations might remain empty.”
Amin suggested a shift toward a leaner presidential system with fewer advisers, citing earlier models under leaders like K.H. Khurshid and Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan. “The parliamentary setup is too expensive and inefficient,” he said. “The recent movement shows the public has rejected this system.”
The Rise of the Jammu Kashmir Joint Action Committee (JKJAAC)
The JKJAAC, which spearheaded the recent mass protests, insists it remains a non-political body focused on public rights. Member Shaukat Nawaz Mir told media that the committee’s 29 members unanimously decided not to boycott future elections but have not yet committed to entering politics.
“We’ll wait and see if the politicians can make independent decisions,” Mir said. “We have no political affiliations, though during the movement, PTI supported us while other major parties told their members not to.”
He added that the committee has built strong local networks and stands ready to mobilize again if promises are broken: “If the new government fails to honor the agreement, we could launch another long march.”
For now, the JKJAAC is monitoring the Pakistani
government’s compliance with key pledges, including limiting the cabinet to 20 members and excluding refugee representatives. “This first step will show whether the government intends to keep its word,” Mir concluded.
Conclusion
The no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq underscores the fragility of governance in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Years of political fragmentation, weak autonomy, and growing public disillusionment have converged to produce a deep crisis of legitimacy.
Whether through new elections or systemic reform, AJK now faces a defining moment—one that will determine if its leadership can restore public trust or if external and internal divisions will continue to shape its troubled politics.
